Fifa International · resolved market
Will Luxembourg vs. Germany end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa73cc9931d0a72a4523c7ebfadb5599e40f3444b8a87bd412bf653e8ef18acd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78f2…f486backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +156.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 9c | 2,116$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.69 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 12c | 1,536$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.69 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…904abacked Yes | 8c | 1,150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 6c | 1,089$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 19c | 1,058$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…79f7backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 8c | 812.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 8c | 786.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 6c | 559.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…987abacked Yes | 5c | 490.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 6c | 347.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 18c | 228.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Yes | 9c | 216.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…6485backed Yes | 7c | 212$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…b699backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…a303backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…3e38backed Yes | 11c | 174.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x943f…d29dbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 7c | 142.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 14c | 140.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed Yes | 13c | 101.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b7d4backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…7bd4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luxembourg vs. Germany end in a draw?this page
- Will Germany win on 2025-11-14?Yes won
- Will Luxembourg win on 2025-11-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.