La Liga · resolved market
Will Atletico Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbe9dfc45b0bcc94b02e26c9144e97fc2f61dce826c06299762d1d2867b3026f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 22c | 12,000$2,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,590 | 241 | 47.7%115 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 78c | 9,000$7,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 8,270$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.48 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 77c | 7,085$5,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.56 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed No | 79c | 5,695$4,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 23c | 5,217$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed No | 79c | 3,015$2,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.8 | 88 | 28.4%25 W · 63 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 51c | 2,237$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.78 | 140 | 67.1%94 W · 46 L | +17.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 47c | 1,524$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.7 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Yes | 46c | 1,193$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 1,054$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.43 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 21c | 999.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 24c | 993.63$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.97 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 22c | 899.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Yes | 25c | 560$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 24c | 420.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked No | 78c | 410$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e03…8388backed Yes | 52c | 381.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 79c | 379$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…8dd9backed Yes | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 64c | 312.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.68 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 21c | 297.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 54c | 254.74$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.73 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed Yes | 60c | 237.28$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 78c | 236.22$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 12c | 222$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…799bbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…5721backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 47c | 165$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x346e…1eb7backed Yes | 27c | 162$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…291bbacked Yes | 14c | 162$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df1…6583backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f8…2e76backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +180.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 65c | 142.46$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…75e3backed Yes | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…a74dbacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c3…aa7ebacked Yes | 62c | 128.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 76c | 109.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked Yes | 45c | 108.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 77c | 103.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Yes | 21c | 99.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 63c | 82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 39c | 80.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ed…0cedbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…4067backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 77c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57df…0bfabacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Yes | 25c | 60.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6caa…3237backed Yes | 60c | 56.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Yes | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e40…e093backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…9dfabacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa858…4b9fbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…3612backed Yes | 51c | 30.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…9303backed Yes | 61c | 30.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eed…20cabacked Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 79c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atletico Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw?this page
- Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24?Yes won
- Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.