La Liga · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26841ef913afddc8fe1ff2b5e2a0731111fd33c09e1c9091b6e604d0d9fcbf41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 13c | 7,500$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…de60backed Yes | 12c | 6,795$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 11c | 4,416$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.89 | 400 | 33.5%134 W · 266 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 13c | 2,503$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.28 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 8c | 2,088$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.56 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 14c | 2,050$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.9 | 155 | 16.1%25 W · 130 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 13c | 1,877$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.06 | 88 | 28.4%25 W · 63 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed No | 42c | 1,056$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.54 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,008$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 241 | 45.2%109 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Yes | 13c | 992.92$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.08 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 13c | 962$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.06 | 502 | 43.4%218 W · 284 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb3…caf3backed Yes | 15c | 585.69$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 13c | 500.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 146 | 21.9%32 W · 114 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 13c | 471.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Yes | 13c | 466.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 31c | 449.7$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.09 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Yes | 10c | 438.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 13c | 328.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 11c | 274.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Yes | 13c | 225.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 13c | 142.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 9c | 139.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 57c | 135.04$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6117…c0cdbacked Yes | 10c | 131.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 9c | 116.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 129 | 17.8%23 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 13c | 101.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 127 | 22.8%29 W · 98 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed No | 42c | 95.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 67c | 47.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…4239backed Yes | 78c | 40.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…e305backed No | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-24?this page
- Will Atletico Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw?No won
- Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.