La Liga · resolved market
Elche CF vs. Real Sociedad: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46b213128b14be41697935a4c949c168d58b68b334f454b65106fb0b769a8712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 8,038$4,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,454.93 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Over | 43c | 7,500$3,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,224.98 | 241 | 47.7%115 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 43c | 6,000$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 57c | 5,878$3,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,527.64 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 43c | 3,006$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.55 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 57c | 1,240$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.38 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Under | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Over | 43c | 781.51$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.05 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…4295backed Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 56c | 482.73$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.27 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 66c | 461$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.46 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ee…ae8cbacked Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Over | 42c | 291.87$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…e803backed Under | 57c | 277.75$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Under | 59c | 270.8$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 147 | 59.2%87 W · 60 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…8e95backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Under | 58c | 171.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Over | 19c | 166$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 44c | 151.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 193 | 44.6%86 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 55c | 145.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef7…1e3dbacked Under | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4814…a24abacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Over | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 43c | 81.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 56c | 74.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 35c | 63.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Under | 57c | 56.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…33d4backed Over | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Under | 57c | 38.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…e313backed Over | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 58c | 21.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…8a20backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Elche CF vs. Real Sociedad: O/U 2.5this page
- Elche CF vs. Real Sociedad: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Real Sociedad (-0.5)Elche CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.