Fifa International · resolved market
Will Türkiye vs. Spain end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0f0bcf852ef29208794f7953f10ecbf20abb9225ece5c1dbd67febc0164c022
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 3,607$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.2 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 22c | 2,889$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.69 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…3d6cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,107$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…9bd2backed Yes | 22c | 882.59$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 20c | 857.79$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.75 | 211 | 40.3%85 W · 126 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 21c | 609$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 78c | 528.98$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.37 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Yes | 6c | 440$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 14c | 219.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 22c | 135$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31f…094cbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…3b00backed Yes | 23c | 95.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 78c | 20.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Türkiye vs. Spain end in a draw?this page
- Will Spain win on 2025-09-07?Yes won
- Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.