Fifa International · resolved market
Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf8d4a09d434c4d20ab2868abda980834231485751f4e685dc05f4233bb6cf0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…2cd5backed Yes | 17c | 17,941$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,997.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 8,764$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.17 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…c16abacked Yes | 17c | 5,892$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,426$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 16c | 1,926$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…121dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,900$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,733$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.29 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 19c | 800$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 16c | 600$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed Yes | 15c | 288.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf47…326fbacked Yes | 17c | 232.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 11c | 209.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 124 | 17.7%22 W · 102 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8721…c2b1backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 16c | 129.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f5…b3c1backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…fdb2backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…e06abacked Yes | 17c | 115.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c7…b3f2backed Yes | 19c | 102.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3852…f0bbbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 91.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 15c | 77.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 15c | 66.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9a…07c3backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Türkiye win on 2025-09-07?this page
- Will Spain win on 2025-09-07?Yes won
- Will Türkiye vs. Spain end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.