Champions League · resolved market
Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66e15ca030ed4a2d7c62d12b24b20035abd2dcda18f56ae03c3887960c87d595
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $596,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $601,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $596,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 3c | 467,545$15,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,435.94 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 4c | 11,356$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.62 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 3c | 10,237$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.1 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 0c | 9,406$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 4c | 7,625$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.93 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 3c | 5,180$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.63 | 129 | 21.7%28 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.57 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 3c | 2,962$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Yes | 4c | 2,857$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 3c | 2,741$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 298 | 46.3%138 W · 160 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 4c | 2,546$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e03…8388backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 10c | 2,051$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 3c | 1,874$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…11febacked Yes | 3c | 1,853$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…849ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,429$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd178…6703backed Yes | 3c | 1,364$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,357$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 4c | 1,317$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6c…2888backed Yes | 8c | 1,268$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 3c | 1,205$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 4c | 1,064$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 107 | 17.8%19 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a5…5f73backed Yes | 4c | 1,063$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Yes | 4c | 788$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…49e2backed Yes | 4c | 733.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…899dbacked Yes | 3c | 647.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Yes | 3c | 588.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 4c | 558.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 3c | 548.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed Yes | 4c | 544.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…5081backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a54…42f1backed Yes | 3c | 441.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 3c | 440.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4921…6f6cbacked Yes | 3c | 432.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 3c | 428.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Yes | 3c | 402.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…489ebacked Yes | 3c | 392.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb7…7998backed Yes | 4c | 370.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…a538backed Yes | 3c | 342.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…e978backed Yes | 3c | 325$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…8742backed Yes | 3c | 294.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…daf8backed Yes | 4c | 272.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 8c | 191.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…f3f3backed Yes | 8c | 126.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-18?this page
- Will Sporting CP vs. FC Kairat Almaty end in a draw?No won
- Will Sporting CP win on 2025-09-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.