Champions League · resolved market
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-09-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfefaa14ee813fd9606e1bc90e4b1ba8c584de2647604cac193765c50547d343e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $976,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,033,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $976,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed No | 11c | 718,919$78,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,072.2 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed No | 11c | 20,856$2,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,294.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 11c | 6,150$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed No | 9c | 5,440$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.09 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 10c | 3,520$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.16 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8d…8189backed No | 10c | 2,770$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.2 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed No | 12c | 1,198$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.69 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 4c | 900$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 14c | 830.88$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 9c | 720.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421d…320abacked No | 11c | 683.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 14c | 657.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed No | 10c | 380$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked No | 15c | 350$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked No | 10c | 341.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +181.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…4955backed No | 11c | 319.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 11c | 281.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f4…60cbbacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 9c | 183.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…59d0backed No | 11c | 132.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…1713backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 291 | 34.4%100 W · 191 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51c6…c26dbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +112%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting CP win on 2025-09-18?this page
- Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-18?No won
- Will Sporting CP vs. FC Kairat Almaty end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.