Champions League · resolved market
Will Sporting CP vs. FC Kairat Almaty end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x029f84cff65875a0d4715f72cc538d1598bcf4aead64d52d015c7e2cde698327
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 8c | 104,922$8,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,393.77 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 9c | 4,401$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 7c | 3,983$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.81 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 129 | 21.7%28 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 13c | 2,814$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.68 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 7c | 2,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,629$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,193$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…49e2backed Yes | 7c | 557.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 8c | 439.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aca…f4c3backed Yes | 13c | 319.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…489ebacked Yes | 8c | 287.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 7c | 270.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 7c | 262.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…862ebacked Yes | 8c | 250.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…7e87backed Yes | 9c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 7c | 208.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 107 | 17.8%19 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4171…4f11backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting CP vs. FC Kairat Almaty end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-18?No won
- Will Sporting CP win on 2025-09-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.