La Liga · resolved market
Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34bef83b3c0303c1326737aba7a7dfa470943073b138efc77379b12c4d561237
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 15c | 13,566$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.96 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 12c | 10,498$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.78 | 241 | 45.2%109 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 14c | 10,252$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.32 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 12c | 4,798$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.17 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 14c | 3,593$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 14c | 3,500$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 13c | 3,050$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.5 | 155 | 16.1%25 W · 130 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 14c | 2,244$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.09 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 13c | 1,615$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 3c | 1,610$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 9c | 1,583$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.48 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,300$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…81f2backed Yes | 14c | 1,107$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 15c | 866.29$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.94 | 146 | 21.9%32 W · 114 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5526…7870backed Yes | 12c | 800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 8c | 646.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed Yes | 12c | 625$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 7c | 585.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…9117backed Yes | 13c | 539.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 13c | 502$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 502 | 43.4%218 W · 284 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 13c | 480$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 14c | 458.8$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Yes | 14c | 376$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…65e1backed Yes | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 8c | 221$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…53d3backed Yes | 6c | 208.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0a…4912backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b3…2beabacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.26per pick | 58cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…d4b9backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe209…685bbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f7…e1d8backed Yes | 16c | 163.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 14c | 149.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 14c | 146.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 532 | 42.3%225 W · 307 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…83fcbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0962…2ad8backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x752f…9332backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…937abacked Yes | 13c | 133.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 15c | 132.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 12c | 132$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 15c | 126.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13b7…393ebacked Yes | 14c | 125.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…2875backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…b084backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…8d0cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 127 | 22.8%29 W · 98 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…4067backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166c…bf05backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 14c | 99.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f59…f091backed Yes | 12c | 91.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 15c | 83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 13c | 76.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb7…7998backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Real Madrid vs. Villarreal end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.