La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Madrid vs. Villarreal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07a45592645d1fc81bdcd9eb92765704b55e635e551bb6a66c1f6e1a847bb8ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Yes | 19c | 29,774$5,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,657 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 4c | 5,555$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 19c | 5,263$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 123 | 38.2%47 W · 76 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 10c | 4,210$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 18c | 3,625$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.28 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 80c | 1,515$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.98 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 19c | 896.58$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…81f2backed Yes | 19c | 790$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 19c | 789.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…4b00backed Yes | 26c | 761.65$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2db…31cabacked Yes | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 75c | 490.55$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.09 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 17c | 394.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 18c | 337.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…53d3backed Yes | 26c | 307.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…8b45backed Yes | 19c | 292.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 17c | 249.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 73c | 185.19$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -7.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Yes | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…f435backed Yes | 16c | 121.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…20c6backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13b7…393ebacked Yes | 19c | 72.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x199a…f436backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 238 | 55.9%133 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Madrid vs. Villarreal end in a draw?this page
- Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-04?Yes won
- Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.