Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96634633577ebc7500136dee2136f35454824deb4e74f8a116a707d83bc1f8d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 29c | 2,584$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.86 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 69c | 1,482$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.32 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a99…8302backed Yes | 28c | 1,410$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 71c | 1,091$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.63 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 71c | 1,056$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.34 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 6c | 834.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 70c | 761$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.3 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 30c | 630$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 71c | 589.77$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.03 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d50…e48bbacked Yes | 29c | 395.59$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…2cf8backed No | 72c | 382.56$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed Yes | 31c | 323.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked No | 73c | 264$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 73c | 259.29$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…aeecbacked Yes | 23c | 195.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d6…c060backed Yes | 29c | 192.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 75c | 180.97$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 74c | 169$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 27c | 164.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 72c | 150.02$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f3afbacked Yes | 26c | 149.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Yes | 27c | 149.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…793abacked No | 72c | 138.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed No | 73c | 136.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ee…ad5bbacked Yes | 31c | 127.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 73c | 95.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 73c | 89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…79c4backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 26c | 76.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…fdd1backed Yes | 30c | 66.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9001…d212backed No | 73c | 56.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…f4d2backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…deffbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…ed14backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 41cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa32f…576cbacked No | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9664…c1c1backed No | 73c | 42.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d84…e3acbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…6240backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…ffd4backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6766…8935backed No | 70c | 16.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1d…415bbacked No | 73c | 13.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-01?this page
- Will RB Leipzig vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-11-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.