Bundesliga · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f91e6afc0061c10d0cb3f588153436a075e88c5d37e36c762620ae99d92bcf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Yes | 27c | 3,371$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 73c | 3,161$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.96 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 1,225$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 73c | 856.98$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.38 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 25c | 803.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 27c | 714$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.26 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 319$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 74c | 252$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 24c | 223$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 78c | 173.85$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 71c | 132.75$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 22c | 128.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 33c | 128.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 29c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…08d8backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…25f8backed Yes | 26c | 94.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…79c4backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 74.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…920cbacked Yes | 25c | 59.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…9d05backed Yes | 28c | 58.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 22cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 74c | 35.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…984abacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 74c | 19.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 73c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?this page
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-11-01?Yes won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.