Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x902bc9c8b28986c56e4dff8094a72f610dca250e49985d7aeaba0bd01e3e8ac7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 0c | 3,753$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f2…33e5backed No | 7c | 2,086$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.48 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 6c | 905.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 59c | 845.59$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.48 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 75c | 331.61$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.51 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…5a85backed Yes | 73c | 259.07$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed No | 7c | 229.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 7c | 224.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 208.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 25c | 208.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 76c | 206.53$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 5c | 199.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 21c | 199.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.34 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 21c | 137.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.79 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 124.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 116.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 76c | 115.81$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 65c | 114.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 58c | 110.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 108.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 30c | 106.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 104$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 98.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 30c | 96.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 27c | 93.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.38 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 33c | 93.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ce…90a5backed Yes | 55c | 92.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 86.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 29c | 79.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 72c | 76.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 76.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 76c | 74.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 74.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…54adbacked Yes | 24c | 71.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed No | 71c | 70.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed Yes | 36c | 70.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 67.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 66c | 59.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 58.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 52c | 58.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 40c | 56.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 49.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 45c | 42.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Yes | 37c | 37.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 40c | 34.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 47c | 33.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…147abacked Yes | 41c | 31.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 73c | 26.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 79c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 22.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 48c | 21.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 67c | 20.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 76c | 17.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 73c | 15.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b7…fc8ebacked No | 76c | 15.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 15.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.