Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd072e7d2758c94bd8705dbbe219c275a508102e9ef063b656a0fbc82af9a402a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 10c | 1,116$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 2c | 1,095$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 3c | 855.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed No | 4c | 783.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 25c | 596.45$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.86 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 42c | 590.03$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.63 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 492.71$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 80c | 458.31$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 431.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 18c | 344.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 64c | 256.77$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 39c | 221.47$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.73 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 75c | 218.29$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 209.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 29c | 199.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 64c | 198.87$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.91 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 16c | 179.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 165.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.54 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 160.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74f…25c0backed No | 68c | 142.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 30c | 132.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 130.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.7 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 124.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 36c | 121.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 63c | 111.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 79c | 109.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 44c | 103.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 79c | 100.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 74c | 100.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…1715backed Yes | 42c | 99.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 31c | 95.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 18c | 89.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed Yes | 73c | 87.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 23c | 86.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 54c | 85.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 27c | 84.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 80.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c3…5bf0backed Yes | 37c | 80.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 80.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 58c | 75.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 70.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 62c | 69.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 35c | 68.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 62.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…a397backed No | 48c | 62.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 44c | 59.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 57.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 50c | 54.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…ca1dbacked Yes | 27c | 51.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed Yes | 35c | 50.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 50.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…beb1backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked Yes | 38c | 49.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecd…eb97backed No | 46c | 48.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 54c | 46.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 50c | 46.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 45.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 64c | 43.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 29c | 42.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 26c | 42.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 75c | 39.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 33c | 37.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 33c | 33.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 74c | 33.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 32c | 32.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 59c | 29.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 65c | 29.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 47c | 28.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 72c | 26.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 72c | 25.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked No | 51c | 25.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 65c | 23.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 23.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 70c | 23.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…bd7abacked Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 65c | 20.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 79c | 19.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3442…bed5backed Yes | 63c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed No | 66c | 19.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…6452backed No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 59c | 19.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.