Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b8e1d5efbf87e51776f092385dfd100ee2f8f3766e3af2e41b018485deaca95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 58c | 509.65$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.45 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 73c | 233.69$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 227.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 200.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 62c | 192.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 13c | 190.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 181.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 55c | 174.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 20c | 173.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 65c | 171.66$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 39c | 164.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 152.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 61c | 151.86$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 62c | 148.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 121.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 44c | 117.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 13c | 114.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 96.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 15c | 76.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…d6fbbacked Yes | 39c | 73.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 65c | 72.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 49c | 66.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 65.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 18c | 65.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 59.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 46c | 56.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 71c | 55.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 55.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed Yes | 32c | 54.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 34c | 51.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 41c | 46.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 46.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 79c | 45.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 70c | 41.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…1715backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 54c | 35.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 38c | 34.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf2…442bbacked No | 74c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 31c | 33.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 35c | 33.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 44c | 31.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 30.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 35c | 30.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked No | 69c | 29.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 36c | 29.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…a9cebacked Yes | 44c | 27.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…b4f4backed No | 52c | 27.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecd…eb97backed No | 61c | 27.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…a397backed No | 47c | 24.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 64c | 21.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 71c | 20.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 64c | 19.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 72c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.