Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a1434001e1d77b7748c4eae9e1de35758a9b356e680bb2fc5390f4fd5cc1798
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 2c | 627.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 483.08$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 384.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.14 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 5c | 286.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 241.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 33c | 209.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 9c | 190.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 50c | 159.13$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 158.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 141.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 140.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 133.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 131.3$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 125.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 105.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 40c | 97.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 37c | 96.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 21c | 95.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 89.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 71c | 89.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 22c | 87.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…a397backed No | 47c | 67.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 73c | 62.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 36c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 56.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 34c | 52.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 29c | 43.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 56c | 43.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 69c | 39.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…f30bbacked Yes | 49c | 38.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 36c | 37.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…8facbacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 45c | 34.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 34.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 32.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 74c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 65c | 20.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 53c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 61c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…bd7abacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.