Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14e822ec520b3071f7030864b7b9544aa1d519965dc0f15c8d8328c7c7d76596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc683…010bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,468$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 649.56$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed Yes | 15c | 499.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 350$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 48c | 329.97$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.63 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 55c | 205.73$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 58c | 180.4$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 149.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 36c | 111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 51c | 104.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked No | 64c | 98.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…8c4dbacked Yes | 44c | 90.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 84.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 39c | 64.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 36c | 64.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 31c | 61.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 58.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 60c | 57.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 55c | 55.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…d4b0backed No | 54c | 55.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed No | 67c | 52.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 45c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 48c | 51.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 64c | 51.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…5317backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…03cbbacked Yes | 39c | 45.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ff34backed Yes | 47c | 42.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 75c | 42.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 46c | 41.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 28c | 38.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 40c | 37.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 60c | 37.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 55c | 35.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 67c | 34.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 47c | 34.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 36c | 33.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 38c | 32.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 47c | 32.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 34c | 31.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 59c | 30.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 47c | 28.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 60c | 24.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 47c | 22.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 58c | 22.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 50c | 21.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.