Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb34a5267f2c4e67f9c6857dd98f9e625001405136d15b205797128414f720883
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 713.3$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 14c | 540.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 7c | 503.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 52c | 392.34$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed Yes | 16c | 298.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.69 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 5c | 201.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 6c | 195.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 40c | 188.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.9 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 55c | 180.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 63c | 174.67$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 58c | 148.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.15 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 67c | 146.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 17c | 140.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.06 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 111.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 106$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 17c | 105.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 68c | 85.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 81.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 72.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes | 62c | 57.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 80c | 56.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…5317backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 52c | 48.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 41c | 45.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 43c | 40.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 34c | 39.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x820f…598abacked No | 68c | 38.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 37c | 38.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 37c | 37.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 44c | 34.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 68c | 31.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 57c | 31.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37f…47ddbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 77c | 26.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…fddebacked Yes | 51c | 25.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 63c | 24.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 70c | 23.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9af…920abacked No | 80c | 18.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 70c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 76c | 14.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 76c | 13.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.