Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4480566912b08ae702fc094f3684188e3e8ffda16909660264d907f0b07fc182
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4acc…9bdabacked Yes | 2c | 679.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 14c | 225.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 21c | 149.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 27c | 120.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 79c | 100.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 100.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 18c | 94.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fe…f0fbbacked No | 80c | 75.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ff34backed Yes | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a9…6771backed No | 75c | 66.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 27c | 55.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 50.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 20c | 50.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…d9d3backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 38c | 46.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…d133backed Yes | 23c | 45.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 37.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 80c | 34.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 74c | 29.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 28.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.