Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0bdbce434cb19e6d889184338ea2c6ae27bb52e245731521e106af357c26937
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ea…c45dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,185$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 249.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 247.95$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b556backed Yes | 57c | 222.59$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 186.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 182.61$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 160.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 76c | 145.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 22c | 138.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 138$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 134.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 126.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 79c | 109.35$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 105.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…9b40backed Yes | 21c | 103.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc273…51eabacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 79c | 96.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 66c | 87.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed No | 78c | 86.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b2…5784backed Yes | 33c | 82.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…7642backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…8c4dbacked Yes | 50c | 68.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 57c | 65.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 58.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…b5b2backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e225backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 24c | 49.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 53c | 45.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed No | 79c | 44.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 25c | 40.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 60c | 33.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 74c | 29.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 77c | 28.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…9b4dbacked No | 74c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed No | 77c | 25.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…887dbacked Yes | 42c | 25.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 24.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…f897backed No | 78c | 19.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…fa48backed No | 64c | 15.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 15.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on March 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on March 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C or higher on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 8°C or below on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 9°C on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.