Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa276224a13f546d0a21111bd0e732373c8dc5bb438b7b591c27da74f6ba614fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 9c | 769.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 441.47$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…f807backed Yes | 18c | 338.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 58c | 295.61$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 8c | 282.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…c7a9backed Yes | 43c | 229.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 212.41$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 7c | 205.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…8814backed Yes | 62c | 193.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…c51ebacked Yes | 59c | 161.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 14c | 138.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 16c | 116.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.36 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 114.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 10c | 108.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.07 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 37c | 103.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba04…310bbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 14c | 99.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.82 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 23c | 99.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 26c | 91.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 45c | 85.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked Yes | 33c | 84.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 75.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 14c | 74.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 57c | 71.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 56c | 71.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 17c | 68.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 19c | 68.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 20c | 66.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 46c | 64.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 43c | 57.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 32c | 54.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 22c | 48.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 38c | 48.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 50c | 47.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 37c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…8190backed Yes | 43c | 40.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 38c | 38.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 38c | 37.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 55c | 30.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 48c | 30.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed No | 45c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 75c | 28.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 46c | 27.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b01…e204backed No | 78c | 25.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 80c | 23.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…f897backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 74c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on March 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C or higher on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 8°C or below on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 9°C on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.