Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x885b20bc6c49aeb221148b35b5c9562af3d8c73160d254bcc2c84ea08318e97a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 20c | 1,216$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.51 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 7c | 395.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 376.39$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 44c | 321.09$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.11 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Yes | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74f…25c0backed No | 58c | 269.58$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.66 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 42c | 249.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.98 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 185.08$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 60c | 173.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed Yes | 75c | 170.39$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.9 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 167.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 59c | 165.65$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 38c | 161.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.84 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 141.77$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 138.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 137.8$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 35c | 105.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc273…51eabacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…7642backed Yes | 34c | 91.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 58c | 83.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 69c | 79.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes | 49c | 79.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…c51ebacked Yes | 55c | 78.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 59c | 78.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb19…0227backed Yes | 38c | 77.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 45c | 76.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 55c | 71.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61a…5943backed Yes | 43c | 70.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed Yes | 70c | 70.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 48c | 69.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b0…4b70backed Yes | 57c | 67.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 50c | 65.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08d6…a14cbacked Yes | 60c | 64.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 29c | 63.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108b…56b3backed Yes | 76c | 51.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…727bbacked Yes | 43c | 49.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…40bdbacked Yes | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 62c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 53c | 48.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…6350backed Yes | 54c | 48.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…fa48backed No | 59c | 48.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…6987backed Yes | 55c | 48.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…15cbbacked Yes | 44c | 43.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b99…8906backed Yes | 72c | 43.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 68c | 41.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 73c | 40.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 36c | 38.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…5024backed Yes | 60c | 38.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…ba3bbacked Yes | 38c | 38.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 54c | 35.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c7…9acfbacked Yes | 57c | 34.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 33.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 53c | 32.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…24fcbacked Yes | 60c | 31.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 66cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 45c | 31.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 61c | 31.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 30.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…0210backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 70c | 29.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 38c | 28.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…2717backed Yes | 54c | 27.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…81a1backed Yes | 44c | 26.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 72c | 25.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 76c | 25.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fc…8032backed No | 77c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 42c | 24.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 49c | 23.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…25e3backed Yes | 54c | 23.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 64c | 23.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f06…0e0fbacked Yes | 58c | 23.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…3039backed No | 52c | 22.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 64c | 22.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed Yes | 46c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…8c4dbacked No | 68c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…45febacked Yes | 77c | 20.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd342…1ad9backed Yes | 56c | 20.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf721…2c26backed Yes | 52c | 20.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…d1bfbacked Yes | 60c | 17.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…d8a7backed Yes | 69c | 17.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea4…47dbbacked Yes | 77c | 16.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 69c | 15.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…30d9backed Yes | 73c | 15.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on March 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on March 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C or higher on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 8°C or below on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 9°C on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.