Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bca5cf93e32208c1319b2ec84bb2b689a4368d8dfde9eb8ae997afe112c8eb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 53c | 1,429$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.91 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 14c | 1,393$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.1 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 39c | 371.14$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.7 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked No | 11c | 277.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 40c | 269.9$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.95 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked Yes | 66c | 255.95$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 57c | 253.26$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 70c | 249.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 36c | 242.65$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 52c | 242.56$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.84 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 235.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 179.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 45c | 170.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 160.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.77 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 15c | 159.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 39c | 133.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 132.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 15c | 129.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…6087backed Yes | 69c | 121.05$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 113.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 54c | 110.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 73c | 99.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 33c | 98.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked No | 66c | 98.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 73c | 98.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 53c | 92.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 28c | 89.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 86.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 57c | 85.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 37c | 83.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 76.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 74.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed No | 17c | 72.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 68.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 64.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 51c | 63.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…53c7backed Yes | 31c | 60.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 50c | 59.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 57c | 58.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 66c | 55.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…d002backed Yes | 61c | 50.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 36c | 46.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 45.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 69c | 43.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 42.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 34c | 42.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 24c | 41.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 39.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 40c | 38.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 40c | 35.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 48c | 32.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 66c | 32.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 35c | 32.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 45c | 30.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…4957backed Yes | 63c | 29.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 47c | 29.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…a996backed Yes | 62c | 29.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7849backed Yes | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 66c | 27.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6c…7171backed Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed Yes | 54c | 23.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…9a38backed No | 56c | 22.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 54c | 22.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 22.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 51c | 21.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…0e08backed Yes | 49c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0c…3c22backed No | 75c | 20.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…0c71backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…3a02backed Yes | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…b1f3backed Yes | 60c | 19.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 54c | 19.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…cf8ebacked Yes | 69c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C or below on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.