Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3a1519bc1b884e6bf038e61d003b9072282a44f6e8abcfcd3c6262622dbd3cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 818.46$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 30c | 325.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 10c | 306.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 8c | 300.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 66c | 273.44$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.03 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 6c | 272.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 15c | 211.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 45c | 211.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 193.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 189.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 186.04$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 53c | 185.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 55c | 182.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 29c | 178.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 17c | 173.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 27c | 140.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 31c | 140.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 137.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 45c | 136.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 48c | 121.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 17c | 121.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 29c | 114.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 111.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 36c | 110.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 27c | 99.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 96.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 52c | 78.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed No | 75c | 76.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 73.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 29c | 72.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 19c | 72.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 72.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 45c | 63.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed Yes | 45c | 60.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 59.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 19c | 56.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 42c | 49.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 29c | 48.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 58c | 45.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 32c | 43.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 42.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 44c | 38.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 29c | 37.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed No | 54c | 37.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…549bbacked Yes | 43c | 35.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 51c | 35.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 34.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 40c | 33.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 44c | 32.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 46c | 30.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 54c | 28.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 54c | 27.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked No | 43c | 24.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5270backed Yes | 43c | 23.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 58c | 21.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 74c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 59c | 17.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 73c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C or below on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.