Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa22a0d87054fc09c2e397309db31c03e23ff3f8afb076edde803426f5b0d5dbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 16c | 572.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 562.73$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 13c | 484.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 11c | 474.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 10c | 464.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 62c | 392.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.46 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 14c | 359.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 340.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 74c | 336.19$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.14 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 21c | 321.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 62c | 312.13$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.32 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 79c | 311.37$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.64 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 269.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 66c | 265.61$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 232.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 74c | 232.68$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.49 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 207.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 199.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 180.2$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ba…cae3backed Yes | 7c | 162.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9471…eb8abacked Yes | 16c | 155.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 152.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 21c | 152.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 60c | 149.82$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 14c | 144.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 12c | 139.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 11c | 139.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 42c | 131.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 129.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 33c | 124.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 79c | 123.75$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed No | 50c | 123.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 67c | 113.64$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 15c | 102.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 99.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 31c | 97.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 31c | 97.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 50c | 96.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 32c | 94.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 22c | 83.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 53c | 78.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed Yes | 30c | 74.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 30c | 73.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 71.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 14c | 71.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 68.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 72c | 67.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 65c | 66.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 75c | 65.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 26c | 61.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5a…4cc4backed Yes | 23c | 59.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 56c | 58.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 40c | 58.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 30c | 55.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 53.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…010bbacked Yes | 23c | 48.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 56c | 47.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 45.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 69c | 45.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 65c | 44.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc567…269fbacked No | 69c | 43.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 62c | 42.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed No | 33c | 41.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 33c | 35.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 69c | 28.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…fddebacked Yes | 52c | 27.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 27.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 72c | 26.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 73c | 25.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 67c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 21.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 78c | 20.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 66c | 19.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed No | 79c | 18.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 80c | 14.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed No | 72c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 79c | 13.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.