Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e81fc0618786f5d55fb77088ef7287cd46abf53c57bdf9be35b0ddcfecb8a09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 33c | 901.7$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.57 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 815.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.84 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 657.06$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 602.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 61c | 511.51$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.26 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 509.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.45 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 7c | 383.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.54 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 13c | 363.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.34 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 341.79$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 48c | 294.12$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.85 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 34c | 283.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.87 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 9c | 275.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 274.67$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 12c | 215.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.13 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 187.7$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.37 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 13c | 185.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.53 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 180.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 49c | 167.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 50c | 166.68$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 166.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 160$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.68 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 136.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 15c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 65c | 111.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 10c | 104.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 70c | 103.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 75c | 97.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked Yes | 18c | 88.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 55c | 87.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 12c | 86.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 52c | 85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 59c | 84.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 31c | 84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 61c | 79.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 24c | 77.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 25c | 69.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 41c | 64.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 62c | 61.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 62c | 61.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 54.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 49c | 54.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 54c | 53.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 70c | 52.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…1715backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 25c | 46.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…f612backed Yes | 41c | 46.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 46.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 46c | 45.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…986bbacked Yes | 63c | 45.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 43.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 40.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 75c | 38.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 38c | 35.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed Yes | 50c | 34.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 60c | 32.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9471…eb8abacked Yes | 66c | 31.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…d6fbbacked Yes | 42c | 29.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 65c | 29.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…4e69backed No | 76c | 29.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 59c | 29.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 54c | 26.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…83f2backed Yes | 45c | 25.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 53c | 24.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 80c | 24.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 80c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 58c | 19.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 77c | 14.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.