Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb046c9e8103249e221b28cbf71a721e9b29d9a496b334749ca2d38dd85b74ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 8c | 419.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 31c | 157.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 18c | 118.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 103.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 101.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 100.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 94.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 26c | 78.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 31c | 75.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 79c | 74.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 38c | 69.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 65.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed No | 70c | 60.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b8…2cc9backed Yes | 26c | 54.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 71c | 49.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 43.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Yes | 44c | 42.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 36c | 39.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 28c | 38.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 67c | 36.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 31.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…0210backed No | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 66c | 24.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 20.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…4cfcbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 69c | 19.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed No | 80c | 15.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.