Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba59e4436525b779143d6fe5585a00530bd0df38176fbed24bd05b06df588be8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 363.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.82 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 3c | 325.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 309.55$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 42c | 277.57$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.78 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 251.05$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 24c | 211.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 59c | 153.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 144.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 24c | 130.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.07 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 77c | 129.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed No | 78c | 128.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 21c | 122.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 17c | 117.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.39 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 28c | 113.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 45c | 109.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 106.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 92.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 74c | 80.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 59c | 70.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 75c | 64.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 23c | 57.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 27c | 56.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 19c | 53.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed Yes | 26c | 52.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked Yes | 70c | 48.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 47.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0baa…ff26backed Yes | 62c | 46.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 34c | 43.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…9e62backed Yes | 26c | 42.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 73c | 36.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 39c | 36.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 36c | 34.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 77c | 30.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 30.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked Yes | 70c | 28.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 66c | 16.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed Yes | 74c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.