Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7d0e78c8ae5ce2e0c615f7e2970a5e5e23cb19b13c1a39d12da22f4028855bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 20c | 604.08$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 316.81$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…e7a4backed Yes | 16c | 291.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 273.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…ee2cbacked Yes | 18c | 253.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc489…7278backed Yes | 6c | 222.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 35c | 206.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 203.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 182.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 32c | 164.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 162.02$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 151.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 63c | 146.68$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 21c | 143.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 125.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 55c | 121.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 56c | 85.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 48c | 79.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 43c | 73.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 15c | 70.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 41c | 69.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 46c | 68.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 42c | 58.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 72c | 55.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 56c | 49.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 78c | 48.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked Yes | 23c | 46.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…f2f2backed Yes | 55c | 45.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 31c | 45.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…8bf8backed No | 65c | 45.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 42.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…dce9backed Yes | 30c | 41.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 54c | 40.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 78c | 39.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 35.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 79c | 31.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 52c | 29.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 38c | 28.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 69c | 28.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 27.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 20.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ee…a2e3backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 16.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 15.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.