Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc06a23dd58b0982ec974d0b72c84507db8054ebddcc183f9768d490ba765996
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40f2…a57cbacked No | 1c | 957.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 73c | 522.03$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.48 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 41c | 480.31$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.07 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 8c | 425.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 70c | 398.47$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.37 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 19c | 346.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.81 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 318.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 50c | 278.26$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 78c | 196.96$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 79c | 149.55$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.64 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 147.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.87 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 131.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 119.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed No | 78c | 115.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 104.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…12a8backed Yes | 15c | 99.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 71c | 99.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 40c | 98.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…214bbacked Yes | 19c | 96.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 94.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…7236backed Yes | 22c | 88.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 16c | 79.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 73c | 58.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 51c | 50.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 48.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 67c | 39.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 46c | 36.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 68c | 32.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 32.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 78c | 32.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 78c | 31.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 31.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 48c | 30.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 24.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 63c | 22.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 21.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 21.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 70c | 20.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 75c | 19.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 80c | 16.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 75c | 15.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.