Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2abc9826122ff851448ba2d34de6af001bd1902ecd6519fd730673707ef2d23d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8907…a996backed Yes | 31c | 251.61$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 69c | 241.03$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 48c | 226.76$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 155.66$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2b…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 152.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 33c | 141.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 65c | 134.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 40c | 129.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 126$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 118.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 32c | 117.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 109.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 96.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 11c | 93.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…a04bbacked No | 62c | 76.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 62.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 49c | 60.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 53.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 40c | 50.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 49.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 44c | 44.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 43.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 42.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 46c | 41.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 38.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 66c | 37.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 80c | 36.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 36.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…2440backed No | 62c | 30.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…675dbacked Yes | 64c | 30.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 63c | 29.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 39c | 28.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x318b…d827backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 60c | 24.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadb5…e421backed No | 64c | 22.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…e792backed No | 75c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.