Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e70e914052fa7cdff382757bc3c3cb988f5d533e0cfa5741c3208d322d806e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 10c | 769.91$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 57c | 768.46$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.99 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 6c | 683.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 411.61$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 387.83$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 9c | 333.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 66c | 299.86$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.13 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 24c | 271.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 21c | 240.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 238.54$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 79c | 216.28$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 60c | 215.48$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.79 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 65c | 210.4$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 59c | 204.52$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 185.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3afe…075dbacked No | 40c | 183.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 58c | 183$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.58 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 40c | 168.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…f3b4backed Yes | 43c | 159.77$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 155.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 77c | 143.37$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 10c | 142.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 139.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 33c | 126.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.91 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 41c | 123.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed Yes | 68c | 122.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0b7ebacked Yes | 41c | 122.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 120.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 10c | 115.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed No | 58c | 112$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 63c | 105.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 49c | 100.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 24c | 100.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes | 49c | 97.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 47c | 93.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 54c | 92.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 84.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 32c | 82.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ff34backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 66.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 64c | 62.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3410…d5cdbacked Yes | 44c | 57.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 53c | 56.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…5a76backed Yes | 30c | 56.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 56c | 55.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 59c | 54.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 53.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 28c | 52.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 29c | 52.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 52.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 59c | 50.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 65c | 50.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 40c | 50.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 49c | 49.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 61c | 49.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 43c | 46.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18d…9dcabacked No | 64c | 46.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…5596backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 39c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 56c | 41.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…b180backed No | 59c | 40.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 47c | 39.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 51c | 39.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…c359backed No | 62c | 38.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 62c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 28c | 37.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 43c | 37.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 44c | 35.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b1…9bdabacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2e…7c75backed Yes | 53c | 35.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 71c | 35.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 39c | 34.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 69c | 34.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…dfcabacked Yes | 40c | 33.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 32.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443e…d903backed No | 43c | 32.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 32.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 55c | 31.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 60c | 31.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed Yes | 49c | 30.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…e389backed No | 57c | 30.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 58c | 30.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde7…89d4backed No | 64c | 29.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 11°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 12°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.