Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 12°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bb4ccc9217fb0449a8eb3bc2373dcc39ab095e24b4b5036cc1e9985edf3dd65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 487.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 11c | 349.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 306.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 301.2$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 13c | 249.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 234.93$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 13c | 229.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe70…5f45backed Yes | 28c | 190.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 177.66$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 17c | 169.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 160.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…5a76backed Yes | 21c | 140.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 125.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 22c | 110.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…ec3abacked Yes | 20c | 109.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 13c | 106$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 24c | 100.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 13c | 96.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b04…9f95backed Yes | 15c | 95.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…c53fbacked Yes | 11c | 94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 90.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 22c | 88.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 84.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 81.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 25c | 80.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 21c | 79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4611…3790backed Yes | 20c | 78.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 21c | 78.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…d802backed Yes | 24c | 74.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…54adbacked Yes | 20c | 71.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 69.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 78c | 63.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 61.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…b329backed No | 79c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 55.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 55.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 52.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…393dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 80c | 33.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 41c | 32.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 79c | 25.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…7edfbacked No | 80c | 20.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 20.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 78c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 12°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 11°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.