Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe4c2b47d1ff7625d346feafd96214faa2b1db41b5fa7385d925f3eca21657c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 1c | 6,454$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 43c | 767.32$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.75 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 24c | 700.82$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.14 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 418.13$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 405.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 26c | 397.4$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 76c | 390$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 15c | 339.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 295.19$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed Yes | 31c | 294.29$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 31c | 287.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 242.82$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 236.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 220.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 15c | 212.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 18c | 203.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 194.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 21c | 165.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 163.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Yes | 31c | 160.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…f3b4backed Yes | 19c | 160.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 22c | 157.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 145.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 41c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 32c | 123.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 10c | 119.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 10c | 119.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 116.86$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0b7ebacked Yes | 23c | 110.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 18c | 106.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 20c | 99.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 30c | 95.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 26c | 85.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 24c | 79.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 76.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 59c | 76.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 74.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 28c | 67.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 49c | 66.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…cb87backed Yes | 17c | 64.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 61.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 63c | 58.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7de0…2a56backed Yes | 29c | 55.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…b0c6backed Yes | 18c | 55.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 50.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…5596backed No | 52c | 48.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 68c | 47.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 44.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 28c | 43.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 43.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 42.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 62c | 42.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 31c | 41.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 36c | 38.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 39c | 38.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 52c | 37.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…2a29backed Yes | 30c | 37.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 46c | 36.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 73c | 32.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 73c | 31.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 29.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…4957backed Yes | 44c | 27.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked No | 73c | 27.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 23.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 11°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 12°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.