Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd38366826478923a4f17ee2fa8fd02f83215157d2b42cc8bd290be6f599af27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7515…0b7ebacked Yes | 0c | 28,045$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 230.43$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 43c | 210.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 166$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 55c | 139.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 29c | 135.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed No | 72c | 119.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 113.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 47c | 111.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 38c | 106.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 48c | 104.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 104.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 31c | 95.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 94.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 62c | 92.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 89.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 30c | 88.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 38c | 79.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 78.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 31c | 76.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…dd39backed Yes | 29c | 73.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 77c | 71.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 42c | 71.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 22c | 69.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 66.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…54adbacked Yes | 30c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 64.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x82bc…7a78backed Yes | 39c | 61.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 58c | 59.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 24c | 59.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 31c | 55.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…dfcabacked Yes | 38c | 54.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 31c | 54.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8977…3379backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 30c | 49.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked Yes | 31c | 49.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 74c | 48.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…7d74backed Yes | 27c | 47.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 68c | 47.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…5024backed No | 69c | 46.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 34c | 44.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 43.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 38.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c26…b2b8backed Yes | 29c | 38.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0196…6005backed Yes | 52c | 32.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.48per pick | 62cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 37c | 29.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a59…9a2fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 73c | 21.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2872…d423backed No | 74c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…d5e9backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or below on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.