Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfebb11ce6f9406160fc4d6bc837395160f651d916b119a76b35e10cb6102cde8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 9c | 506.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 51c | 420.4$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.88 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 59c | 337.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.85 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fe…f0fbbacked Yes | 68c | 305.9$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 278.88$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.52 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x518e…0913backed No | 11c | 263.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 231.04$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 64c | 225.42$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 79c | 212.97$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 5c | 193.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 37c | 187.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.35 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 36c | 157.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 152.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 149.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 40c | 149.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 31c | 144.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.72 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0ae9backed No | 8c | 143.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 115.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 113.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x826a…b27cbacked Yes | 46c | 108.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 35c | 100.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 89.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 42c | 87.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 46c | 87.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 50c | 87.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…53c7backed Yes | 55c | 75.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…dfcabacked Yes | 45c | 72.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 28c | 71.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 62c | 64.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 47c | 55.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 47c | 55.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 65c | 53.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 42c | 52.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed No | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bc…7a78backed Yes | 46c | 49.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e96…9332backed Yes | 41c | 47.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 58c | 47.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 35c | 46.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc23…d4cbbacked Yes | 70c | 45.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 45c | 37.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 39c | 35.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 54c | 33.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…6cecbacked Yes | 45c | 32.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 52c | 32.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 57c | 31.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 50c | 29.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 28.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 65c | 27.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…7758backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 62c | 21.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…f612backed Yes | 70c | 21.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…6914backed Yes | 66c | 17.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or below on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.