Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55712681504838e977de0512427aa9eb5d2cb9c094cef287b2efc52f8d1afeeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 0c | 12,529$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 395.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.83 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 385.54$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 48c | 348.3$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.39 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 25c | 291.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.52 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 5c | 247.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 22c | 222.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 202.56$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 197.16$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 45c | 176.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 151.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 24c | 151.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 23c | 136.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.82 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 16c | 136.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.27 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…c0b5backed Yes | 35c | 133.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 77c | 122.54$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 118.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.17 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 70c | 118.87$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed Yes | 80c | 118.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 118.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 23c | 112.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ed…49d1backed Yes | 46c | 105.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c04…a98fbacked Yes | 77c | 102.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 19c | 95.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 89.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed No | 34c | 87.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 70c | 85.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 56c | 84.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 74c | 83.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 22c | 80.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5a…4cc4backed Yes | 61c | 76.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 72.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 54c | 69.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 43c | 65.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 63.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 28c | 61.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 71c | 60.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 66c | 57.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…a996backed Yes | 36c | 52.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 67c | 52.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 27c | 51.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 48.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 30c | 47.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 40c | 47.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 25c | 46.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 51c | 42.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 38c | 41.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 73c | 40.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 29c | 38.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 76c | 38.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 37.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 78c | 35.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 56c | 34.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 70c | 33.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 68c | 33.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes | 43c | 32.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 30.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 74c | 30.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…e1c6backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 66c | 29.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 56c | 25.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…9b40backed Yes | 71c | 25.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 18.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 17.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 76c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or below on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.