Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9f80ec158e2fa5b0575186dd08bc3260a2c6c879e9896b9f9ac3941021d27a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,059$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 540$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 14c | 363.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 325.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 313.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 35c | 291.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 18c | 271.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 190.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 188.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 15c | 184.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 13c | 183.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 22c | 168.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 13c | 161.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 30c | 137.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 17c | 132.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 36c | 130.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 126.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 118.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 115.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed Yes | 24c | 113.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 110.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 24c | 101.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 21c | 92.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 82.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…10fabacked Yes | 33c | 64.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 63.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 56.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 40c | 47.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 37c | 45.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 68c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 33c | 44.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…6737backed Yes | 28c | 43.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a6…0cd5backed No | 67c | 41.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 27c | 38.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415e…e151backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c78…4f7bbacked No | 67c | 31.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…d987backed Yes | 35c | 29.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 63c | 27.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 73c | 26.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 79c | 26.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 74c | 25.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…eb82backed No | 67c | 24.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 22.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 76c | 21.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 69c | 20.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 69c | 16.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 16.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 72c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…5fe2backed No | 80c | 13.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or below on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.