Chess · resolved market
Will Hikaru Nakamura Win Title Tuesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7d855c62c19516a3aff195c5a0720b76a0fbebc21dbfd5c7dea5499a45b8a0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0050…cad1backed Yes | 10c | 8,632$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked No | 77c | 1,135$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.4 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed No | 79c | 891.15$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.69 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 71c | 575.99$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 77c | 481.56$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 78c | 468$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 77c | 400$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 72c | 247$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6e…445abacked Yes | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9e…6693backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 66c | 184.7$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…59c6backed Yes | 9c | 146.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf379…c1cabacked No | 78c | 132.73$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…8460backed Yes | 21c | 125.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…5ea2backed No | 71c | 100.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 25c | 90.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x829e…eee5backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb5…4d50backed No | 77c | 58.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…11ecbacked Yes | 27c | 55.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…ec11backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ad…6a6bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 33c | 40.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 77c | 39.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0beb…4503backed No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hikaru Nakamura Win Title Tuesday?this page
- Will Magnus Carlsen Win Title Tuesday?No won
- Will Parham Maghsoodloo Win Title Tuesday?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.