Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 2 above $80?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12fc1ed74d1359e6ee1246209b8d6120719533a626b7b682fe6942e2c4fa30e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 75c | 1,474$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.49 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 24c | 1,100$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.94 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 13c | 900$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 16c | 607.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 36c | 598.5$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.68 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 21c | 319.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 75c | 315.49$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes | 58c | 208.61$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b14…da6cbacked No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…0568backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 69c | 139$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +230%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…bf1ebacked No | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 19c | 130$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 49c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 10c | 119.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 18c | 116.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…c6efbacked No | 33c | 106.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 34c | 98.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 16c | 87.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 83.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e7…9a70backed No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 37c | 72.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…8cbdbacked Yes | 59c | 69.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 63.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 49c | 34.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…63a4backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.28per pick | 31cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0853…f4febacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…f2f2backed Yes | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 54c | 19.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 2 above $80?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 2 above $90?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.