Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x000f556afccb76557553373d4ec33a1cfc72f0c5c9bbf7d8a0ff22dd92bf66ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 209.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 144.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 112.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 11c | 94.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 92.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed No | 73c | 49.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 23c | 48.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 45.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 23c | 43.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 42.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 39.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 36.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2695…60f8backed No | 68c | 30.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 69c | 25.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 72c | 25.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…66dbbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 76c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 68c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 79c | 17.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 73c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…a163backed No | 77c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.