Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fernandez vs Sonmez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0016292060d4689143e668a91bccffeaea1d6a8d3b5dc8d65664d0e16445ce3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sonmezof Fernandez, Sonmez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Fernandez | 14c | 3,500$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 312 | 34.6%108 W · 204 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sonmez | 78c | 2,841$2,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.49 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Fernandez | 61c | 1,609$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.4 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Sonmez | 66c | 1,477$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.87 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Sonmez | 39c | 470.89$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.24 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sonmez | 40c | 323.78$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.84 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Sonmez | 39c | 300.43$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.68 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x796c…49dbbacked Fernandez | 63c | 261.49$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.27 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Sonmez | 67c | 149.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sonmez | 40c | 81.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Sonmez | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Sonmez | 41c | 48.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…a463backed Fernandez | 61c | 46.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Fernandez | 66c | 40.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 185 | 59.5%110 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Sonmez | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed Fernandez | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 283 | 43.8%124 W · 159 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fernandez vs Sonmezthis page
- Fernandez vs. Sonmez: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Fernandez vs. Sonmez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Leylah Fernandez vs. Zeynep Sonmez: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Leylah Fernandez vs Zeynep SonmezLeylah Fernandez won
- Set Handicap: Fernandez (-1.5) vs Sonmez (+1.5)Sonmez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.