Ligue 1 · resolved market
Saint-Etienne leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00294b74c2bc00c87fb1f9dc290988a4499fc5445ca493668755f97291150f8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 77c | 772.76$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 74c | 494.77$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.42 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…3fbcbacked Yes | 29c | 452.62$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…0fddbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 29c | 413.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Yes | 28c | 102.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866c…19c0backed Yes | 24c | 62.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 76c | 23.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Saint-Etienne leading at halftime?this page
- Nice leading at halftime?No won
- Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.