Ligue 1 · resolved market
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe277183a17207eab3c649e5213590c7eb20640b9aa1c526c83939b5f4c93f6fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf12d…0fddbacked Yes | 48c | 2,388$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 58c | 1,958$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.04 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 43c | 1,392$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.68 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 51c | 611$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.61 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 51c | 447.49$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.22 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 52c | 355.42$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.02 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 47c | 253.01$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.1 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…3fa2backed No | 54c | 210.37$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 67c | 204.48$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 51c | 175$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…586dbacked No | 55c | 91.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 53c | 73.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d32…fe22backed Yes | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 42c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf32…6cf3backed Yes | 53c | 28.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed Yes | 49c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…77a9backed Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: Draw at halftime?this page
- Nice leading at halftime?No won
- Saint-Etienne leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.