College Football · resolved market
Will UNLV beat Oregon State?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0085a51fd3c31e5a2518e5ff37310b467d2eb76c959092ae8bc51a84f453931c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UNLVof UNLV, OSU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed UNLV | 70c | 2,749$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.86 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked OSU | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked OSU | 19c | 1,379$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.87 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed UNLV | 80c | 1,166$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.25 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed OSU | 5c | 973.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked OSU | 43c | 813.95$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed OSU | 21c | 702.15$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.45 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…e38abacked OSU | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed OSU | 40c | 467.5$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…513ebacked UNLV | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked UNLV | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e71…3838backed OSU | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked OSU | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…8fabbacked OSU | 44c | 125.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c4…490ebacked UNLV | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 70cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.