Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Sofia Costoulas vs Lanlana Tararudee
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x016a60bc0a8f34f6e29d25ef6751fd398fb9a3a9465056581fabb71d1fb6b2a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tararudeeof Costoulas, Tararudee
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Costoulas | 28c | 1,421$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 126 | 27.8%35 W · 91 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Tararudee | 71c | 955.52$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.58 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Costoulas | 52c | 814.99$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.43 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Costoulas | 26c | 768.03$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.78 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…e23dbacked Costoulas | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Costoulas | 51c | 307.89$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.77 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581a…9b7dbacked Costoulas | 50c | 302.31$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Tararudee | 68c | 293.21$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Tararudee | 48c | 254.65$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.42 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…7dcebacked Costoulas | 51c | 252.57$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.71 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.25per pick | 33cpaid | -77%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Tararudee | 50c | 239.31$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.66 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tararudee | 56c | 224$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Tararudee | 50c | 222.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.77 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Costoulas | 8c | 216$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Tararudee | 48c | 211.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Costoulas | 47c | 207.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Costoulas | 18c | 206.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tararudee | 71c | 200.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Costoulas | 22c | 157.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Costoulas | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Tararudee | 52c | 114.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…c770backed Tararudee | 52c | 106.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb6…5bf0backed Tararudee | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Tararudee | 66c | 87.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Costoulas | 23c | 80.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…3d22backed Costoulas | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…68edbacked Costoulas | 28c | 62.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…aa77backed Tararudee | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…8115backed Costoulas | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…b219backed Tararudee | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Tararudee | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Tararudee | 71c | 37.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Tararudee | 48c | 34.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Tararudee | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…c974backed Tararudee | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Sofia Costoulas vs Lanlana Tararudeethis page
- Set 1 Winner: Costoulas vs TararudeeTararudee won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.