Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan State vs. Maryland
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x018097899a25f6dd14f7e363644515ed79e5c3bda4efc4b72e9b2927d3e04e32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Stateof Michigan State, Maryland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Maryland | 64c | 1,284$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.68 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked Michigan State | 39c | 801.31$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.31 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Michigan State | 37c | 200$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…6b9abacked Maryland | 61c | 197$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Maryland | 47c | 179$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.13 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Maryland | 62c | 165.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Michigan State | 34c | 139.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…c124backed Michigan State | 37c | 138$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a2…8a37backed Michigan State | 39c | 121.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Michigan State | 35c | 110$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167d…af99backed Michigan State | 39c | 108$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…dd1ebacked Michigan State | 52c | 93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd5…1c08backed Maryland | 63c | 86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…2c54backed Maryland | 48c | 77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…012cbacked Maryland | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Michigan State | 35c | 73.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…9a83backed Michigan State | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef0…a024backed Maryland | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…b4cebacked Michigan State | 37c | 61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f17…24dbbacked Maryland | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9829…dc34backed Maryland | 63c | 59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf7…0716backed Michigan State | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…2927backed Michigan State | 39c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f0…7a60backed Maryland | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…c51fbacked Michigan State | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc43…bf16backed Michigan State | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…702dbacked Michigan State | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b61…33e2backed Maryland | 60c | 43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…8bcfbacked Maryland | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…76ccbacked Maryland | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…5f07backed Maryland | 61c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…67b1backed Michigan State | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 44cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…c91fbacked Michigan State | 37c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 44cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x343a…b33dbacked Michigan State | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…e0f0backed Michigan State | 36c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +306.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe909…f4e2backed Michigan State | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe449…6486backed Maryland | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…b28ebacked Michigan State | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…b468backed Maryland | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Maryland | 66c | 30.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…de5dbacked Michigan State | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…1a16backed Michigan State | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…a3bfbacked Michigan State | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…05e2backed Maryland | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…4675backed Maryland | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bed…4a9abacked Michigan State | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…0946backed Maryland | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5855…c5e8backed Maryland | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff6…c0d1backed Maryland | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1562…db1cbacked Maryland | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25b…ce76backed Michigan State | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…0606backed Maryland | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db1…404bbacked Michigan State | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…e4dcbacked Maryland | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…b674backed Maryland | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6f…4453backed Maryland | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…51bdbacked Maryland | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb18…dc8cbacked Maryland | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…7750backed Maryland | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…6f9dbacked Maryland | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…5459backed Michigan State | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b81…9900backed Michigan State | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c21…6f6abacked Michigan State | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…1436backed Maryland | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2daf…b449backed Maryland | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Maryland | 66c | 17.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.