Cricket · resolved market
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore - Who wins the toss?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01a8d02facf950ae7b9dc86618d5f2a33c6ca9930e144d729ed55190e9077497
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mumbai Indiansof Mumbai Indians, Royal Challengers Bangalore
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfea8…47aabacked Royal Challengers Bangalore | 46c | 467.35$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.98 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…a3a4backed Royal Challengers Bangalore | 52c | 282.81$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.83 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…e3b7backed Mumbai Indians | 50c | 253$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9d…ab79backed Mumbai Indians | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…1ca6backed Mumbai Indians | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ab…283fbacked Mumbai Indians | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee6d…0c24backed Mumbai Indians | 54c | 97.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…f863backed Mumbai Indians | 51c | 95.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e61dbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore | 30c | 73.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…15b5backed Mumbai Indians | 53c | 69.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9e…4f07backed Mumbai Indians | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df3…c95cbacked Mumbai Indians | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…2d05backed Royal Challengers Bangalore | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2433…99aebacked Mumbai Indians | 55c | 41.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 145 | 27.6%40 W · 105 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…7cffbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…aaa1backed Mumbai Indians | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c42…93bfbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore | 49c | 29.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d9…d7eabacked Mumbai Indians | 54c | 25.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…ae18backed Mumbai Indians | 51c | 21.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…1eecbacked Mumbai Indians | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e3…f804backed Mumbai Indians | 51c | 19.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore - Who wins the toss?this page
- Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers BangaloreRoyal Challengers Bangalore won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.