Australian A League · resolved market
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01aa62eb6f69d5bae708cdace393a226bd3811b154da59f3fa32eb44cfeeead2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 66c | 459.35$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 54c | 367$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 351.02$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.32 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 46c | 215.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.42 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9da…81d7backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 161.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 40c | 108.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 54c | 92.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 47c | 82.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…bc38backed Over | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…167bbacked Under | 50c | 28.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3d…0679backed Over | 53c | 27.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7559…f69cbacked Over | 52c | 27.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a2…4464backed Under | 50c | 26.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…e489backed Over | 53c | 26.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f16…e964backed Over | 52c | 26.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…68e2backed Under | 50c | 25.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5511…ad0fbacked Over | 53c | 24.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…0c6abacked Under | 50c | 24.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4faf…b092backed Under | 50c | 23.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2a…fb1fbacked Over | 52c | 23.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd93…2a53backed Over | 53c | 20.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.